The School of Numbers & Logic · Probability & Statistics
Statistics: From Data to Decisions
Study design, sampling, and inference — the full route from a question to a defensible conclusion, potholes marked. · QA 276.12 · ~36 h
A variable is either categorical or quantitative, and its level of measurement decides which summaries are even allowed on it.
fol. 2 Where the Middle SitsMean, median, and mode each name a different notion of a typical value, and a skewed distribution is exactly what makes them disagree.
fol. 3 How Far Things SpreadRange, interquartile range, and standard deviation measure how far data sits from its center, and they differ chiefly in how much an outlier can move them.
fol. 4 The Shape of a DistributionA histogram or boxplot reveals whether a distribution is symmetric, skewed, or multi-peaked, and that shape decides which measure of center you can trust.
The normal curve is a symmetric, single-peaked distribution whose 68–95–99.7 rule fixes what fraction of data falls within one, two, and three standard deviations of the mean.
fol. 6 One Ruler for Every ScaleA z-score restates a value as the number of standard deviations it lies from its mean, letting you compare measurements taken on completely different scales.
A sample can only speak for its population when it is chosen without bias, and random selection is the one dependable defense against that bias.
fol. 8 The Same Question, Many SamplesA statistic like the sample mean changes from one sample to the next, and that predictable spread of estimates is measured by the standard error.
fol. 9 How Sure, Give or TakeA confidence interval reports an estimate plus a margin of error, and the confidence level states how often intervals built this way capture the true value.
A scatterplot shows two measurements per subject at once, exposing the direction, form, and strength of any relationship between the variables.
fol. 11 Measuring the LeanThe correlation coefficient r condenses the direction and tightness of a linear relationship into a single number between minus one and one.
fol. 12 The Line of Best FitA regression line summarizes a scatter with one equation you can predict from, but only within the range the data actually covers.
fol. 13 Correlation Is Not a CauseTwo variables can move together because one drives the other, because the second drives the first, or because a lurking third variable moves both — and correlation alone cannot say which.
A chart can distort honest data by truncating the axis, stretching or compressing a scale, or cherry-picking the window of time it shows.
fol. 15 Reading a StudyWhether a study may claim that one thing causes another depends on whether it merely observed the world or actively assigned a treatment, and on which competing explanations it ruled out.
fol. 16 From Data to DecisionBefore a conclusion is allowed to drive a decision, it must pass a fixed checklist covering how the data was collected, how it was summarized, and how it was displayed.